BusinessWeek’s article today titled “Super computing for the Masses” has a forward-looking statement from Justin Rattner, Intel's chief technology officer:

"We imagine some future generation of [Nintendo's] Wii won't have hand controllers. You just set up the cameras around the room and wave your hand like you're playing tennis."

Hmm, interesting. Especially considering Intel isn’t producing any of the chips for the current generation of consoles. Are we really sure he knows what he’s talking about here? And, more importantly, doesn’t this all sound a little bit too familiar?

IBM developed the Cell processor for the Playstation 3 and left Intel out to pasture. Nintendo and Mircrosoft also decided to not use Intel for the Wii and 360. So why would Justin Rattner have insight into future game consoles? Simply put, he doesn’t. But, even though he doesn’t have an “in” with the product development groups at the major console companies, his argument appears to make sense at first glance. After all, the Wii’s incredible success has led many to reevaluate the face of the gaming industry. Motion controls are so popular right now that they MUST be the future, right?

Hold your Celeron chip right there Mr. Intel, I’ve got a story to tell you. Read the following paragraph from Nintendo Games Secrets, written by Rusel DeMaria and published in 1990.

“A lot of work is being done on what is called virtual reality. Virtual reality simulators seem to place the participant inside the simulation. Current VR technology has people wearing special helmets in which they move through a fully rendered three-dimensional world created entirely electronically. Using special gloves and treadmills, they seem to be walking through the world and manipulating objects in it.

Although current VR research is at its early stages, the future may bring us very compelling VR simulations ranging from your driver’s test to aircraft simulations, from a fully realistic mock surgery lesson to a walk through your prospective home. Future games will be as real as technology can make them, and there’s no telling what powerful learning and growing they will let us do.”

We all remember those giant VR headsets. But there’s a lesson to be learned here that Mr. Rattner might want to take into consideration before he releases his next forward-looking statement to the press. Technology takes major shifts, jumps, bumps, bruises and utter failures before it becomes a mainstream success. The Wii is a result of years of R&D at Nintendo. VR simulations were thought to be the next big thing too in the early 90’s. After all, they were everywhere; arcades, amusement parks, magazines and were the buzz topic of the industry. They also had years of R&D behind them and every industry pundit released statements just like Rusel DeMaria’s praising VR and its future capabilities.

VR was going to change gaming forever. So where the hell did it go? Into gaming oblivion my friends, only to be kicked to the curb by the next big thing.

To believe the Wii will evolve into a new form of VR seems unlikely. But who's to say it won't? VR was popular too for many years, just like the Wii is now. Everyone wanted it at home, and was convined it was the future of home entertainment. Nintendo tried to capitalize with the Virtual Boy and ultimately failed. They don't like talking about that one now. And you do you remember Battletech, right Mr. Rattner?

So, what’s the point you ask? Don’t jump on the “motion controls are the future” bandwagon JUST YET. The motion-sensing craze is in its infancy right now. The Wii just turned one, and the industry has yet to deal with the major shifts, jumps, bumps, bruises and utter failures that will unquestionably follow. VR had that same shakedown pan out and it totally disappeared. Something will evolve from the Wii, that’s for sure. But to assume motion controls are the future a year after its release is far premature in my book.

Don’t agree with me yet? Read the altered paragraph below, and then see what you think.

“A lot of work is being done on what is called motion sensing controllers. Motion sensing controllers seem to place the participant inside the simulation. Current motion sensing technology has people using special controllers in which they move through a fully rendered three-dimensional world created entirely electronically. Using a special sensor and Bluetooth technology, they seem to be walking through the world and manipulating objects in it.

Although current motion sensing control is in its early stages, the future may bring us very compelling full body controls ranging from your driver’s test to aircraft simulations, from a fully realistic mock surgery lesson to a walk through your prospective home. Future games will be as real as technology can make them, and there’s no telling what powerful learning and growing they will let us do.”

Bottom line? Intel knows Moore’s law, and has the ability to “see into the future” by analyzing their past to create successful future processors. It’s been their business model for years, and it works. A quick history lesson on the game industry will tell you that logic can’t be applied to video games.

I guess that’s why you can’t gamble on game console wars in Vegas. The house can’t win.